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市场分析丨2016年中国天然气分布式能源市场现状、发展及中国天然气行业发展趋势、市场需求(图)
发表日期:2016-9-8

FENBUSHINENGYUANSHIZHIJIANGNENGYUANXITONGYIXIAOGUIMO、XIAORONGLIANG、MOKUAIHUA、FENSANHUADEFANGSHIBUZHIZAIYONGHUDUAN,KEDU LIDICHUANSHULENG、RE、DIANNENGDEXITONG。FENBUSHINENGYUANBAOKUOTAIYANGNENGLIYONG、FENGNENGLIYONG、 RANLIAODIANCHIHETIANRANQILENGREDIANSANLIANGONGDENGDUOZHONGXINGSHI,QIZHONGTIANRANQILENGREDIANSANLIANGONGYIN QIJUYOUCHUANTONGNENGYUANDEGAOXIAOLIYONG、CUJINJIENENGJIANPAIDEYOUDIAN,YIJINGZAIQUANQIUFANWEIDEDAO LEGUANGFANDEYINGYONG。"TIANRANQISHIDAI"ZHENGZAITUIDONGBUFENFENBUSHINENGYUANJISHUDEFAZHAN。TIANRAN QIDEGUANGFANSHIYONGYIJITIANRANQIWANGLUOMIDUDEBUDUANKUODAWEITIANRANQIFENBUSHINENGYUANXITONGCHUANG ZAOLEJUEJIADEJIHUI。

2000 NIAN,QUANQIUDUIFENBUSHINENGYUANZHUANGZHIDETOUZI DA$300 YI,ERQIEFENBUSHINENGYUANRONGLIANGYIMEINIAN 47GW DESUDUZENGJIA,ZAIQUANQIUFADIAN ZENGJIALIANGZHONGDEBIZHONGDA 21%。DAO 2012 NIAN,FENBUSHINENGYUANFADIANRONGLIANGDENIANZENGJIALIANGSHANG SHENGDAO 142GW,ZAIQUANQIUFADIANRONGLIANGZENGJIALIANGZHONGZHANBIZHANGZHI 39%;FENBUSHINENGYUANDETOU ZIZEZENGJIADAO$1500 YI。FENBUSHINENGYUANDEQIANGSHIZENGZHANGYOUWANGYANXU,TONGYONGDIANQIYUJIDAO 2020 NIANFENBUSHINENGYUANFADIANRONGLIANGZENGJIALIANGJIANGZENGJIADAOMEINIAN 200GW,DUIFENBUSHINENGYUAN JISHUDETOUZIYEJIANGDADAO$2050 YI。

FENBUSHINENGYUANJISHUQIYUANYUMEIGUO。1978 NIANMEIGUOKAISHIFAZHANXIAOXINGREDIANLIANCHAN, BINGQIEZHUBUZOUXIANGLENGREDIANLIANGONG。JIEZHIDAO 2010 NIAN,MEIGUOFENBUSHINENGYUANZHAN 6000 DUOZUO, ZONGZHUANGJIDADAO 9200WAN kW,ZHANQUANGUOFADIANLIANG 14%。MEIGUOFENBUSHINENGYUANXIANGMUYOUYITIAN RANQIFENBUSHIWEIZHU,YITIANRANQIWEIYUANLIAODEREDIANLIANCHANZHUANGJIRONGLIANGZHANREDIANLIANCHANZONGZHUANGJI RONGLIANGDE 73%。MEIGUOZHENGFUWEILEZENGJIAFENBUSHINENGYUANZHANDEKAIFALIYONG,WEIQISHEZHILETOU ZISHUIJIANMIAN、SHENPIJIANHUA、ZHICHIBINGWANGDENGFUCHIZHENGCE,BINGYU 1999 NIANTICHULE《FENBUSHINENGYUANCHUANGYI》HE《FENBUSHINENGYUAN 2020 NIANGANGLING》, MINGQUETICHULIZHENGDAO 2020 NIANSHI XIAN 50%DEXINJIANSHANGYONGJIANZHUHE 15%DEXIANYOUSHANGYONGJIANZHUCAIYONG"FENBUSHIREDIANLIANCHAN" 。

2013 NIAN,DEGUOFENBUSHITIANRANQIFADIANLIANGJIEJIN 80TWh,XIONGJUOUMENG 27 GUOSHOUWEI。DEGUOFENBUSHINENGYUANZAI OUZHOUZHANYOULINGXIANDEDIWEI,QIZHONGYITIANRANQIWEIRANLIAODEXIAOXINGREDIANLIANGONGSHEBEI (mCHP)ZHANYOUXIANGDANGDEBIZHONG。DEGUODUI mCHP ZHENGCEZHICHITIXIANZAIDUOFANGMIAN: 1)mCHP XIANGGONGGONGDIANWANGSHOUDIANSHIXING"YOUXIANJIAGEFA":mCHP ZAITOURUYUNXINGHOU DE 10 NIANNEI,MEIDUDIANYIFAXIANGSHOU 5.11 OUFENDEBUTIE。CIWAI,YOUYU mCHP JIE SHENGLESHUDIANFEIYONG,MEIDUDIANJIANGLI 0.15~0.55 OUFEN;2)RUO mCHP MEINIANNENGXIAO CHAOGUO 70%,JIUKEYIXIANGSHOUTUISHUIYOUHUI,MEIDUDIANWEI 0.55 OUFEN;3)WEIJIAKUAISHI CHANGYINRU 50kW DE mCHP SHEBEI,HUANJINGBUJIANGZAI 10 NIANQIJIANTIGONG 400 WANOUYUAN DECAIZHENGZHICHI,JIDUIZUICHUDE 4kW FADIANLIANG,SHIXING 1550 OUYUAN/kW DEBUTIE, DUI 25kW~50kW FANWEIDEBUTIEWEI 50 OUYUAN/kW。JIEZHI 2012 NIANDI,DEGUOXIAO XINGREDIANLIANCHANXIANGMURONGLIANGCHAOGUO 240 WANQIANWA,ZHENGFUJIANGZAI 2020 NIANZHIQIANTOUZI 30000 GEXIANGMU,ZONGZHUANGJI 2768MW。ZHENGFUQIWANGZAIXINZHENGCETUIDONGXIA,DAO 2020 NIANSHIRANQIFENBUSHIDEFADIANLIANGFANYIFAN,DADAOQUANGUOZONGFADIANLIANGDE 25%。

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2014 NIANYILAI,GUONEITIANRANQI SHICHANGZENGSUCHUXIANLEMINGXIANXIAJIANG,2014 NIANJIANGZHI 9.58%,2015 NIANZEJINYIBUXIAJIANGDAO 4.5%,YU 2002-13 NIANNIANJUN 16%DEZENGSUXIANGQUSHENYUAN。TIANRANQICHANYEFAZHANZENGSUJIANG DIZHUYAOSHIYOUXUQIUFANGHUANHEBIJIAGUANXIEHUAZAOCHENG,QIJUTIYUANYINBAOKUO:1)WOGUOJINGJIZENGSUZI 2014 NIANKAISHIFANGHUAN,JINGJIJIEGOUMIANLINZHUANXING, GONGYE、FADIANYONGQIZENGZHANGDAFUJIANSU,DAOZHITIANRANQIXUQIUZENGZHANGDAFUFANGHUAN;2)ZUOWEITIDAINENGYUAN,BIJIAGUANXIDUITIANRANQIFAZHANZHIGUANZHONGYAO。 2013 NIAN 7 YUEZHIQUNIANDIJIANGJIAQIAN,TIANRANQICHENGSHIMENZHANJIAGEPINGJUNSHANGZHANG 36%。ER TONGQIBULUNTEYUANYOUXIANHUOJIAGECONG 103 MEIYUAN/TONGJIANGZHI 48 MEIYUAN/TONG,JIANGFUCHAOGUO 53%;QINHUANGDAOGANGDONGLIMEI(Q5500)SHICHANGJIAGEYOU 600 YUAN/DUNJIANGZHI 375 YUAN/ DUN,JIANGFUWEI 37.5%。YOUYUTIDAINENGYUANDECHENGBENXIAJIANG,TIANRANQIDEJINGJIXINGYOUSHI BEIXUERUO,DAOZHIQIYEYONGQIYIYUANXIAJIANG;3)YOUYUWOGUODUIYUTIANRANQIDEJIAGEDIAOZHENGZHOUQIJIAOZHANG,DAOZHITIANRANQIJIAGEYUTIDAINENG YUANJIAGEWUFAJISHILIANDONG,NANYIZHENSHIFANYINGTIDAINENGYUANDEJIAGEBODONGYUTIANRANQIBEN SHENDESHICHANGGONGXUYIJIJIAGEPINGHENGNENGLI。

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ZHANGQIYILAI,"JIAGE、GONGYINGHELONGDUAN"SHIZHIYUEWOGUOTIANRANQIFAZHANDESANDAPINGJING。WEILAI (1)SUIZHETIANRANQIJIAGAITUIJIN,TIANRANQIJIAGEJINRUXIAXINGTONGDAO,BIJIAGUANXIJIANGZHUBUGAI SHAN;(2)SUIZHEJINKOUQIZENGJIA,TIANRANQISHICHANGCONGGONGBUYINGQIUXIANGGONGXUKUANSONGZHUANHUAN,GONGYING DUIXUQIUDEYIZHIXIAOSHI;(3)SUIZHESHICHANGHUAGAIGEDETUIJIN、ZHONGSHANGYOUCHANYELIANXIANGMINYINGQI YEFANGKAI,TIANRANQISHICHANGGONGYINGZHUTIJIANGGENGJIADUOYUANHUA,JIFAXINGYEFAZHANHUOLI。

ZHANWANGWEILAI,GUOJINENGYUANSHU(IEA)DUIGUONEITIANRANQIDEXU QIUZENGZHANGBIAOSHILEGUAN。JINGUANSHOUZHIYUJINGJIZENGSUFANGHUAN,IEA ZAI《2015 NIANTIANRANQIZHONGQI SHICHANGBAOGAO》ZHONGRENWEITIANRANQIJIAGEXIADIAOHEHUANBAOQUYANRENGJIANGSHIZHONGGUOTIANRANQIXUQIUZAIWEI LAI 5 NIANWEICHI 10%ZUOYOUDEFUHENIANJUNZENGSU,BINGYUJI 2020 NIANZHONGGUODETIANRANQIXUQIU LIANGJIANGDADAO 3150YILIFANGMI。